Public data. Transparent methodology. Commercial clarity.
Quantail reconstructs connection queues, tests who is actually likely to build, separates committed reinforcement from wishful thinking, and translates the result into valuation, credit and development decisions.
The GB grid is being asked to accommodate connections totalling several multiples of system peak. Firm capacity is not the answer that arrives at most projects on a useful timescale. Access will be shared, and grid access is the single biggest sensitivity sitting under most energy-project investment cases. Reading it well is a commercial advantage. Reading it poorly is a hole in the model.
Across multiple project and corporate transactions, the same gap kept appearing. Technical grid analysis was rarely connected to the financial modelling that drives valuation, lender confidence and the investment decision. Quantail closes that gap.
Henry Easterbrook, Founder. Read the full story.
A proprietary engine that reconstructs GB connection queues project by project. Build-out probability, attrition shock testing and reinforcement realisation engineered into the workflow. Experienced judgement where it matters.
Pre-application origination of new developments. Identifying where capacity is or will become available, before sites are formally in the queue.
When the headline number doesn't add up. Get under the skin of what is really driving it, and what to do about it.
Embedded senior capacity for developers, funds and platforms. The in-house grid-commercial function without the overhead, hiring risk or fixed cost of a permanent appointment.
Three things move grid-risk numbers more than anything else. Quantail tests all three, project by project, on the same evidence base.
Every project ahead of the asset, rebuilt from public registers. Capacity, technology, status, queue position. The foundation for every curtailment, reinforcement and valuation assumption that follows.
Each project ahead screened on credible build-out probability. Planning status, capex commitment, development track record, sponsor profile, signs of life. The queue ahead at energisation is a probability-weighted view, not the published list.
Reinforcement that is funded, contracted and on programme is treated differently from reinforcement that is planned but predicated on a build-out that may not materialise. Committed versus planned, tested case by case.
What is really driving a curtailment number, connection condition or constraint claim. Real, overstated, manageable, or misunderstood.
Decision: accept / challenge / renegotiate / pause.
Building a pipeline from first principles. Capacity availability identified through unfilled regional technology allocation, queue attrition and reinforcement timing. Greenfield, not just M&A.
Decision: originate / acquire / wait / walk.
Compare sites on a consistent like-for-like basis. Build-out probability, constraint exposure, reinforcement dependency, configuration fit.
Decision: fund / defer / drop / progress.
Capacity, duration, hybridisation and dispatch trade-offs under the actual constraint. The configuration with the best risk-adjusted commercial outcome.
Decision: refine / re-scope / re-plan.
Grid uncertainty translated into sensitivities, mitigants and IC- or lender-ready language.
Decision: invest / lend / approve / decline.
Stress-test grid claims in transaction materials. Used by buyers, lenders, IC chairs and sponsors before key gates.
Decision: bid / reprice / require protection / walk.
A 20% curtailment figure can be fatal, manageable or largely irrelevant depending on when it occurs. Quantail separates headline energy loss from revenue impact.
For BESS especially, curtailment in low-price periods is far less damaging than in spread-rich windows. Misread that, and the revenue case is wrong by a margin that matters.
See the methodology
GB networks operate on a LIFO or indexing basis. Curtailment is calculated assuming every project ahead of the asset still exists at energisation. Some will not. Others will change capacity, timing or technology.
Quantail reconstructs the queue project by project, screens each on build-out probability, and tests how curtailment moves under credible attrition scenarios. The probability-weighted queue at energisation is the commercially meaningful one, not the published list.
Understand the mechanicsConnection offer, queue, network data, constraint info, client materials.
Reconstruction, build-out probability, binding-constraint identification, attrition, reinforcement realisation.
Revenue sensitivity, valuation, configuration trade-offs.
Proceed / pause / reprioritise / renegotiate / challenge / monitor.
Origination, constraint diagnosis, connection terms, configuration, pipeline prioritisation.
Independent DD. Valuation sensitivity. Build-out probability across queues. IC-ready outputs.
Independent credit-committee view. DSCR stress-tests. Non-firm risk allocation.
Independent challenge. Vendor stress-tests. Technical-to-commercial translation under deal pressure.
Demand-side curtailment is a different animal. Site selection, contracting, economics.
Why a 20% headline can mean very different revenue and valuation outcomes.
Posts written for investors, developers, lenders and advisers, not for engineers alone. The cleanest way to see the methodology in action and how the market is moving.
Direct senior access. No sales team, no gatekeepers. Bring a real question.
Scoping calls are free, around 30 minutes, confidential.
Book a scoping call